Unlocking the power of what NOT to do

Experimentation is often thought of in terms of delivering new ideas, converting more people, or optimising ad campaigns. While many focus on discovering the next big idea, it's equally important to realise that experimentation is essential for identifying what not to do. By embracing a data-driven approach, we can uncover faulty assumptions, mitigate risks, and stop costly projects that take time and money. This blog post will delve into digital experimentation and how to draw out assumptions, identify the riskiest, and test it quickly to see if you should proceed.

Understanding the assumptions in your ideas

Before diving into the experimentation process, it's important to recognise the assumptions associated with your new idea. Assumptions are the underlying beliefs or expectations about how things will work or what results you'll achieve. Understanding the assumptions will allow you to work out what is needed to be true for your idea to be successful. 

Here are some steps to help you draw out assumptions:

1. Complete the assumptions exercise: This exercise helps you draw out everything that is assumed around your idea. Giff Constable is the creator of this incredible helpful exercise Giff Constable exercise sheet 

2. Share your answers: Get together with your team and discuss each response to the questions. 

3. Collect, organise and: Collect the answers on Post-it notes and group them into themes so everyone can see them. 

Identifying the riskiest assumption

Once you have listed all the assumptions, it's time to find the riskiest one. The riskiest assumption is the one that, if proven wrong, would have the most significant impact on the success of your idea. To identify this assumption:

1. Evaluate: Assess the consequences of each assumption being false. Which one could lead to failure or waste of resources?

2. Prioritise: As a team, rank your assumptions based on their potential impact and the degree of uncertainty surrounding them.

Testing your riskiest assumption

With the riskiest assumption identified, it's time to test it quickly and efficiently. To do this, follow these steps:

1. Design a Minimal Viable Test (MVT): Create a simple, low-cost test to validate or invalidate your riskiest assumption. This may involve creating a prototype, running a survey, or analysing existing data.

2. Set clear objectives: Define what success and failure look like for your test. Establish quantitative or qualitative metrics that will help you determine if the assumption is valid.

3. Execute the test: Implement the MVT and gather data. Remember, the goal is to learn as quickly as possible, so focus on speed and simplicity.

4. Analyse results: Evaluate the test results and determine if the assumption holds true. If it does, proceed with your idea and move on to the next assumption. If not, reconsider your approach or pivot to a new direction.

Embracing digital experimentation is key to unlocking the power of what not to do. By identifying and testing the riskiest assumptions, you can save time, resources and avoid costly mistakes. Innovation is a continuous process, and learning from failures is just as important as celebrating successes. Adopting a culture of experimentation is not just about how to get more of something. It's learning from each step in the process and pivoting when needed.